Laplace’s Rule of Succession
Laplace’s Rule of Succession is really easy.
Say we have a 2-sided coin that comes up heads with some frequency f, and we have a uniform distribution on [0, 1] for the value of f. Then after n coin-flips, k of which are heads, the Rule of Succession gives:
as our probability for a heads on the next flip.
I decided to bring this up because I see people using Maximum Likelihood for this sort of thing all the time, which is pretty silly given how easy it is to do it the Bayesian way.